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You can find reports from our Investment and Research team, timely and informative financial planning topics from our Wealth Management team, and deeper dives on various important topics in our white papers from any team member. Read online, share with friends, or download for your convenience.

The eyes of the financial world have been fixed on an unlikely country in recent weeks – Turkey. A 40% depreciation in the Turkish Lira so far this year has many people wondering if their economy is on the brink of financial collapse. The situation in Turkey has been exacerbated by numerous issues including very high inflation, a large current account deficit and a less than ideal geopolitical environment. However, possibly the largest issue is that Turkey has a large portion of debt that is denominated in foreign currencies. The decline in the Turkish Lira has made this debt much more expensive to service, which has led to concerns about the solvency of the country. This has triggered a sharp decline in the price of Turkish assets. While at this point the sharp selloff has been contained to Turkey, there has been some spillover into other emerging markets and there are fears that this may trigger an emerging market crisis like we saw in the late 1990s.

By: Paul Cantor, CFA®, AIF®, CFP™
Chief Operating Officer, Principal

I was recently asked by friends why my economic and market outlook was tinged with some concern. It was a valid question from some very intelligent non-financial professionals. The financial media is filled with positive bias as they cheer Apple becoming the first company in history to reach a $1 trillion-dollar market capitalization. Additionally, we just posted the strongest GDP growth that we have seen in years of 4.1% for the quarter. The stock markets hover at near record highs. Consumer confidence is bordering on ebullient. S&P 500 earnings are estimated to grow by nearly 23% for the quarter. Corporate managements are repatriating funds from overseas and buying back stock at unprecedented rates supporting both stock prices and earnings growth. According to S&P Global Rankings, “Total cash held by U.S. nonfinancial companies, including money parked domestically and overseas, rose 9% to a record $2.07 trillion.”1 The unemployment rate ticked down to a new low of 3.9%, the lowest we’ve seen in over 17 years.

Consumer and corporate balance sheets are ostensibly in terrific condition. We are enjoying the second longest economic expansion since 1945 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. So, why the concern? This paper will add some perspective, looking deeper into the averages to show why they could be fallacious.

Click here to read our full white paper: The Fallacy of Average.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its 15th comprehensive update of the National Income and Product Accounts data last week. The comprehensive update occurs every five years and revises economic data from the previous five years. Since it is historical data the release does not garner much attention; however, there are important insights to discern from the changes. 

APA Nicholas 3x4HI RGBAllegiant Private Advisors is pleased to announce that Portfolio Manager Luke Nicholas, CFA, CFP® has earned the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ designation.

Luke joined Allegiant Private Advisors in 2013. In his role as portfolio manager and member of the firm’s Investment Committee, he is responsible for using internally-generated research to tailor customized investment portfolios for each client. Prior to joining Allegiant Private Advisors, Luke graduated from the Honors Program at The University of Florida with a bachelor’s degree in Finance. Luke holds his Chartered Financial Analyst® designation in addition to having earned his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ accreditation in the summer of 2018.

Allegiant’s team approach to customized wealth management with concierge-level service is rooted in recruiting and retaining consummate professionals who possess important industry credentials as well as the utmost character. We’re proud of Luke’s latest accomplishment as he works diligently to serve your portfolio goals.

The chart below displays the average monthly rise or decline in payrolls across business sectors from January to July in 2017 and 2018. As seen in the July jobs report, demand for manufacturing labor remains very high, and has seen the highest growth in payrolls versus 2017 in the measured time period. Manufacturing job trends will be important to watch as we get deeper into the trade war and labor supply gets constrained further. We are paying close attention to future job reports and broader economic developments.

Chart JobsMarketTakeways
All indices are managed, and investors cannot actually invest directly into an index. Unlike investments, indices do not incur management fees, charges or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

As we are now about halfway through companies reporting their second quarter earnings reports, we wanted to take a look at how different sectors of the market have performed. While earnings growth has been strong overall, there have been wide swings in stock prices upon the release of their financials. The most notable occurrence of this earnings season has been the performance of the technology sector which has been plagued by sizable selloffs in big names such as Netflix, Facebook, Twitter, and Intel.

Q2 2018 US GDP Growth
The first estimate of second quarter GDP growth showed that the U.S. economy grew at a solid pace, driven in part by the recently enacted tax cut. The economy grew 4.1% in the second quarter, the strongest reading since the third quarter of 2014. The largest contributor to growth was a 4.0% increase in consumer spending. Business investment growth was also solid at 7.3%. However, a drawdown in inventories offset the entirety of this underlying investment growth. Government expenditures were another positive contributor, increasing 2.1% during the quarter. The final component of GDP, net exports, added 1.06% to growth, as exports surged 9.3%. While at first glance the export growth appears to be a very positive piece of data, it is an aberration that may be unsustainable moving forward. Almost all the growth in exports derived from a surge of soybean and other agricultural shipments ahead of pending tariffs beginning on July 1st. This means that the surge is likely to be reversed next quarter. 

Lynda FranklinIt’s hard to believe but July 25th was my 10-year anniversary with Allegiant Private Advisors, an accomplishment I’m blessed and proud to reach.  I look forward to celebrating many more years.

I am one of three APA team members who was born and raised in Sarasota. You’ll probably find out who the others are when they write their bio a little later, I’m sure!  I also share the same birthday as another team member; not the same year, though. Unfortunately, I’m old enough to be their mother!

I grew up during a quieter, less populated time in Sarasota with no idea what ‘little Sarasota’ would become.  I used to ride my horse along McIntosh when it was a dirt road.  As a matter of fact, our horses were stabled at a pasture off Bahia Vista that is now a subdivision I reside in.  In the 70s, I rode western saddle and competed professionally in the Central Florida Horseman’s Association circuit for a year on a beautiful dun (buckskin) quarter horse our family owned named Taffy. Along with approximately 100 trophies and ribbons I won that year I also won Champion in Western Pleasure and Reserve Champion in Western Horsemanship.  It was an incredible experience I cherish. 

After graduating from Sarasota High School, I attended an accounting class at what is now called Suncoast Technical College, thinking I was going to become an accountant. I was working at the courthouse as a felony division clerk at that time and became interested in law, so I took a paralegal class at MCC, now State College of Florida. However, life had a different path in mind for me.  So over the years, though I’ve done many things, the professional field and people-facing jobs have been my calling. 

APA Jones 3x4LOAllegiant Private Advisors, an independent firm in Sarasota, Fla., today announces that its Chief Investment Officer Benjamin W. Jones, CFP®, AIF®, has been named to the Forbes’ Top 1,000 Next-Generation Wealth Advisors list for 2018. The list is published on Forbes.com.

Jones has been managing assets for private individuals, families, and charitable organizations for over a decade. As a Principal and Chief Investment Officer of Allegiant Private Advisors, he leads the firm’s Investment Committee. Jones is responsible for establishing the firm’s overall investment strategy, security selection, portfolio management, and oversees research activities. 

Wayne Bloom, CEO of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Allegiant Private Advisors’ Registered Investment Adviser–broker/dealer, said, “Congratulations to Ben Jones on being recognized by Forbes. This vibrant advisor brings new ideas and fresh perspectives to the industry and represents the next generation of independent advice for investors. We are proud to see Ben recognized, feel fortunate to have Allegiant Private Advisors as part of the Commonwealth community, and remain committed to serving this growing practice with the intuitive, integrated technology, tools, and resources that drive productivity and keep their business client forward.”