We do all our own research, which we share in our Monthly Economic Book, various white papers, macroeconomic and security-specific reports. In fact, we're one of the few wealth management firms that license their own Bloomberg terminal, making self-sourced research the highest priority in order to enhance our independent approach to total wealth management. Please browse reports in our Research Archive sections.

White Papers

The Fallacy of Average

By: Paul Cantor, CFA®, AIF®, CFP™
Chief Operating Officer, Principal

I was recently asked by friends why my economic and market outlook was tinged with some concern. It was a valid question from some very intelligent non-financial professionals. The financial media is filled with positive bias as they cheer Apple becoming the first company in history to reach a $1 trillion-dollar market capitalization. Additionally, we just posted the strongest GDP growth that we have seen in years of 4.1% for the quarter. The stock markets hover at near record highs. Consumer confidence is bordering on ebullient. S&P 500 earnings are estimated to grow by nearly 23% for the quarter. Corporate managements are repatriating funds from overseas and buying back stock at unprecedented rates supporting both stock prices and earnings growth. According to S&P Global Rankings, “Total cash held by U.S. nonfinancial companies, including money parked domestically and overseas, rose 9% to a record $2.07 trillion.”1 The unemployment rate ticked down to a new low of 3.9%, the lowest we’ve seen in over 17 years.

Consumer and corporate balance sheets are ostensibly in terrific condition. We are enjoying the second longest economic expansion since 1945 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. So, why the concern? This paper will add some perspective, looking deeper into the averages to show why they could be fallacious.

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White Papers Archive

Research Briefs

2018 First Quarter Earnings Brief

With 93% of S&P 500 companies reporting 1st quarter earnings, revenue growth has surprised to the upside. This is a much-needed sign of the improving economy.

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Research Briefs Archive

Monthly Insights

Monthly Insights - September 2018

Get out the sparklers. Put on your dancing shoes. Pop the champagne! We are now living in the longest bull market in American history. At over 9.5 years, this bull market has now surpassed the great boom of the 1990s. While still not the strongest bull market in history, this bull run is making an impressive move up that list as well. By the sheer fact that it has lasted for so long, combined with the depths of the recession being so deep, the gains on the way up are significant. The problem is, as we continue to make our way into the record books, it still doesn’t feel that good to many. 

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Monthly Insights Archive